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| Technicians make final adjustments to humanoid robots ahead of an upcoming demonstration at a Beijing trade exhibition on Wednesday, Feb. 18, 2026. (AP Photo) |
China’s export growth accelerated to nearly 22% in the first two months of 2026, defying cooling trade relations with Washington as Beijing successfully rerouted its industrial output toward emerging markets and Europe.
Data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs revealed that outbound shipments jumped 21.8% in January and February combined. This performance significantly outpaced the 7.1% growth projected by economists and marked a sharp rise from the 6.6% increase recorded in December 2025. The surge pushed China’s trade surplus to a record $213.6 billion for the period.
While total exports soared, shipments to the United States fell by 11%, continuing a downward trend sparked by a 20% plunge in U.S.-bound trade throughout 2025. Analysts attribute this shift to sustained tariff pressures and a strategic pivot by Chinese manufacturers to minimise reliance on the American market.
Internal dynamics also played a role in the spike. Manufacturers front-loaded orders ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in mid-February to avoid production pauses. "Strong export growth helps to mitigate weak domestic demand," stated Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. He suggested that the government is likely to maintain its current macro policy stance through the first quarter given the external strength.
However, officials remain cautious about the year ahead. Global shipping disruptions, fueled by escalating conflict in the Middle East, pose risks to supply chains. Additionally, Premier Li Qiang recently set a conservative GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5% for 2026, signalling that Beijing is bracing for a "less favourable global trade environment," as cautioned by the World Bank.